What the Houston Astros decide to do with Alex Bregman’s pending free agency could determine how the rest of their offseason goes. Because of that, there’s a chance they allow the two-time All-Star to walk.

It’s a tough decision for many reasons. Most importantly, there doesn’t seem to be a clear replacement in the Astros organization. There’s a reason why their farm system is regarded as one of the worst in baseball, so that brings rightful worries.

In addition, there’s a loyalty factor that goes into guys being with an organization for as long as Bregman has been in Houston.

The front office hasn’t been afraid to step on toes and not bring guys back after spending long periods of time with them, but this situation feels a bit different than others.

If he wants to be paid like the top third baseman in baseball, the chances of him returning to the Astros seem lower than they would if he’d be willing to take a pay cut.

He shouldn’t expect to get a Manny Machado type of deal. If anything, Matt Chapman’s recent $151 million contract could be a good starting point.

Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report predicted his deal to come out to $150 million over five years.

“Nailing down a potential contract figure for Alex Bregman is tricky. He’s older than Rafael Devers (26) and Austin Riley (25) were when they signed extensions north of $200 million, and he’s not as accomplished as Manny Machado who inked a new 11-year, $350 million deal with the San Diego Padres. He signed a five-year, $100 million extension with the Houston Astros when he was 25 years old, so he will likely be looking for a raise over the $20 million AAV of that deal, but he has also never matched the elite-level production he put up in 2019 prior to signing that extension.”

For someone who hits free agency in the winter, Bregman didn’t do himself any favors.

The New Mexico native was one of the worst players in baseball for much of the beginning of the campaign, and while he picked it up in a big way in the second half, he would’ve benefited greatly from having an impressive season as a whole.

Despite some struggles, he posted a 118 OPS+ and has been above that mark for five of the other eight years of his career.

He’s an elite hitter, and typically, elite hitters get paid. Whether that’ll be from Houston or not remains to be seen.