December 23, 2024

How destination club Cats could land three big trade targets — yes, even Clayton Oliver

Jack Martin, Bailey Smith and Clayton Oliver!? The Cats couldn’t land all three ... could they?

Jack Martin, Bailey Smith and Clayton Oliver!? The Cats couldn’t land all three … could they?

While there’s still plenty of water to go under the bridge, Geelong could be set for a huge triple coup this off-season in a scary prospect for the rest of the competition.

The AFL’s master destination club is at least two-thirds of the way there — Martin has committed to joining Geelong as a delisted free agent and Bailey Smith has requested to be traded to the Cattery.

The Oliver situation is more complex given he has six years running on a lucrative contract, with Melbourne currently weighing up its position behind the scenes.

But reports claim Oliver is also keen to don the blue and white hoops in 2025 after being dangled on the trade table twice in 12 months as part of a turbulent year for Melbourne.

An Oliver move could ultimately be too hard to manoeuvre, but it’s certainly a live possibility.

So how could Geelong get all three through the door?

Starting with the most straightforward deal, Martin will cost Geelong literally nothing in a trade sense as he can be picked up as a delisted free agent, meaning the move is as good as done.

Then there’s the Smith situation, which is delicate in its own right despite the gun midfielder being out of contract after an ACL injury wiped his 2024.

There’s an expectation it’s a trade that will go down to the wire in potential face off between the Dogs and Cats.

Geelong’s first-round pick — the No. 15 selection — will be central to any trade but likely not enough on its own. The Dogs could ask for Pick 35 as well, which would leave Geelong’s draft hand depleted.

If the Cats had to attach more, they’d push to send out Pick 53 instead of Pick 35 (not that the former would be of much value to the Dogs). The Dogs have picks 32 and 44 themselves to play with.

Ultimately, you’d expect something to get done for Smith surrounding that Pick 15 with peripheral moving parts.

Finally, the Oliver deal — a deal some have already said could be the most complex ever. That’s because there’s so many layers to it.

Firstly, Oliver is contracted for six more seasons on a contract estimated to be worth north of $1 million. Could Geelong even fit that sum into its salary cap? Even if so, Geelong would push for Melbourne to chip in.

You sense the Cats wouldn’t want to pay the entire sum and give up a good pick, for right now Oliver’s deal would be seen a negative asset.

But on the other side of the coin, if Melbourne decided to bite the bullet and trade Oliver, it’d be terrible optics to also pay for a four-time best and fairest winner and 2021 premiership hero to play for another club, much less a flag contender.

How those salary negotiations play out would impact the trade itself. And perhaps Melbourne would prefer to contribute to Oliver’s salary if it can get fairer value in a trade.

Given the Cats’ Pick 15 is tied to the Smith deal, it’s logical that Melbourne would target Geelong’s 2025 first rounder — a pick not necessarily that appealing either given how well Geelong is placed going into next year.

Geelong’s future first rounder would likely be the core of an Oliver deal plus whatever else Melbourne could squeeze out, of course impacted by the salary machinations and what the Cats have leftover after the Smith deal.

While some Demons fans would probably think a first-rounder potentially as far back as selection 18 for Oliver is unders and that the club should walk from such a deal, it very well could. Melbourne also holds the whip hand with Oliver contracted.

But the Dees are clearly considering a bold, fresh start for 2025 and attempting to turn a page on a tough chapter. That might mean off-loading Oliver in something of a concession they stuffed up if they can get a clean slate and everyone back on the same page.

“I’m fully supportive of Melbourne cutting the cord now (on Oliver),” Port Adelaide legend Kane Cornes said on AFL Trade Radio.

“They’re not going to get anywhere near what the value was this time last year.

“Maybe they erred in not pushing Oliver out the door harder last year when you probably would’ve gotten a couple of first-round picks from Adelaide at the time and the salary off your books.”

Of course, once Melbourne enters negotiations, there might be no turning back or risk the situation imploding in 2025, if not sooner, and the flow on effect that could have. It’s something the Dees couldn’t afford after a grim 2024.

Simplifying things is that Smith and Oliver are both managed by Connor Sports, so both deals are exclusive to three parties. Pulling them off, however, is a different story.

Cats list boss Andrew Mackie clearly has a lot on his plate — and a good plate to have as Geelong loom as big trade period winners.

There’s no great onus on Geelong though as far as the Oliver situation goes. It can simply sit back and watch how it unfolds from the other side of town and wait for the deal to come to them.

A starting midfield of Smith, Oliver and Patrick Dangerfield is the stuff of fantasy teams, it’s just a matter of assembling it.

 

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