Cubs free agent target: Max Fried

The Cubs say they might go after more pitching. So why not?

Starting pitching was one of the strengths of the 2024 Cubs, particularly lefthanders Shōta Imanaga and Justin Steele.

So why not go after another left, free agent Max Fried, who’s spent the last eight years with the Atlanta Braves?

Fried has been pretty consistent over his career in Atlanta, though he has missed some time with injuries, including part of the 2024 season. In that sense, in some ways his career is similar to Steele’s, only a step up the ladder. Fried has two Gold Gloves, two top five Cy Young Award finishes, and is a two-time NL All-Star, in addition to pitching in seven postseasons. (You probably don’t want to look at his postseason ERA, though.)

While he’s not the prototypical bat-missing ace who’ll regularly pile up strikeouts in droves, Fried has solid and consistent velocity from the left side, averaging either 93.9 mph or 94.0 mph on his four-seamer in each of the past four seasons, per Statcast. His strikeout rate in that time is slightly above-average but not elite, at 23.7%. What has been elite is Fried’s command (combined 6.1% walk rate over the past four seasons) and his ability to pile up grounders. Fried has never posted a ground-ball rate lower than 51% — league-average in 2024 was 42.2% — and he peaked with an outstanding 58.8% this past season. Framber Valdez was the only qualified starter in baseball with a better mark.

Presuming Nico Hoerner is again healthy in 2025, the Cubs have a strong infield defense that would work well with a ground-ball pitcher like Fried.

Three of MLBTR’s four writers who put together their rankings think Fried will sign with the Cubs. They’ve got him at six years, $156 million, which is an AAV of $26 million. The Cubs could certainly afford that. It would, in fact, be a comparable deal to the one Jon Lester signed with the Cubs before the 2015 season (six years, $155 million, with a seventh-year vesting option that included a buyout that the Cubs wound up paying). Further, Fried is the same age Lester was when Lester signed that Cubs deal, and he wound up giving the Cubs five really good seasons and a sixth that wasn’t so great (though that was the 2020 pandemic season).

This seems like the perfect match and money the Cubs can afford. They should do it.