Newest free-agent closer would be a disastrous decision for Jed Hoyer and the Cubs
On paper, it appears as if the Washington Nationals might’ve given Jed Hoyer and the Chicago Cubs a gift. The Cubs bullpen — as evidenced by their 26 blown saves this past season — was a problem, particularly late in games. They added Eli Morgan to help in that regard, but adding an All-Star reliever like Kyle Finnegan, who was surprisingly non-tendered by Washington on Friday evening, would go a long way toward improving it.
Finnegan recorded 38 saves in 43 tries this past season for Washington and was an All-Star for the first time. Had he pitched the ninth inning regularly for the Cubs, Chicago might’ve found a way to squeak into the postseason.
But while, on paper, adding a reliever who just recorded 38 saves sounds like a must-do for Hoyer and Co., a deeper dive into his numbers would suggest that’s not the case.
Signing Kyle Finnegan is not as much of a slam dunk as it appears on paper
Finnegan had 38 saves with only five blown opportunities, but his 3.68 ERA was pretty high for a closer, and statistics like his 4.25 FIP and his 4.31 xERA suggest he’s lucky that his ERA was where it ended up. The right-hander has always been a solid reliever, but he has a 3.56 ERA over the course of his carFinnegan’s 38 saves feel like a great fit for a team with a need at the closer position, but everything else about his profile screams bad idea. Hopefully, Hoyer sees that and pursues other options to fill the hole needed late in games.eer.
As if that isn’t concerning enough, Finnegan gives up a whole lot more hard contact than you’d want a closer to. He ranked in the first percentile in average exit velocity and the second percentile in hard-hit rate according to Baseball Savant. A good amount of that hard contact is on the ground, but Finnegan did have a 24.6 percent fly ball rate this past season — a career-high.
That spike in fly balls resulted in Finnegan surrendering nine home runs this past season. He has given up nine or more
in each of the last four seasons, which isn’t horrific, but it also isn’t a small number, considering the fact that he pitches around 65 innings annually. Adding a pitcher who is prone to giving up the long ball like Finnegan to pitch half the time at the Friendly Confines doesn’t exactly sound like a recipe for success.
