Can the Twins Bank On Buxton and Correa Resurgences In 2024?
Christmas has come and gone with no presents for Minnesota Twins fans under the offseason tree. Minnesota’s offseason transactions have been relatively scarce due to the front office’s typically patent approach to free agency. But the main reason is likely the self-imposed payroll limit from ownership due to their Bally TV contract expiring and uncertainty with their rights deal.
Minnesota’s only moves this offseason were bringing in minor league free agents Niko Goodrum and A.J. Alexy. Similar to someone finding socks in a Christmas stocking, they are fine in combination with other presents. But you feel ripped off if that’s all you find on Christmas morning. It also doesn’t help that Twins fans saw other fanbases open Emilio Pagán, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Sonny Gray as gifts on Christmas morning.
The Twins will likely make some moves over the next couple of months. But it will probably be a quiet offseason outside of potentially making a big trade for a starting pitcher. That’s not a fun way to go about an offseason for a team that just broke a two-decade-long postseason streak.
Still, the Twins may already have a way to increase their production from a year ago. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton must have a more productive year in 2024.
Minnesota’s highest-paid players have combined for 10.2 fWAR since the beginning of the 2022 season. That alone isn’t terrible, but it’s underwhelming coming from the duo that is supposed to be the face of the team. Both players had good overall stat lines in 2022, but injuries and cold stretches prevented them from driving winning throughout the year.
Correa and Buxton are Minnesota’s biggest earners. Buxton’s $15 million and Correa’s $32 million in 2024 make up about 51 percent of their 2024 payroll. Both hitters aren’t going anywhere due to their no-move clauses, and they have to provide the Twins with more value next season.
Minnesota’s offense got better in the second half of the 2023 season. They had a 124 wRC+ in their final 81 games, which was third-best in baseball compared to a 19th-ranked 99 wRC+ in the first 81. However, Correa had a 99 wRC+ second half, and Buxton only played in 15 second-half games. Still, the offense had some flaws that led to historically high strikeouts (26.6 percent team strikeout percentage). The Twins also had inconsistent run production with a .811 OPS with runners in scoring position but a .774 OPS with RISP during the first half of the season.
Adding a free agent like Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins, or any other available quality bat can bring added production to the 2024 Twins. But nobody would bring greater production than they could get from Correa and Buxton. Correa averages 3.6 fWAR per season, and Buxton averages 2.1 fWAR per year. Bellinger (3.1 average fWAR) or Hoskins (1.93 average fWAR) would bring added value to the Twins, but Correa and Buxton can drive winning for the Twins in 2024 if they have career-average seasons.
Health is always going to be the biggest question with Buxton. He has missed 147 games over the last two seasons, but Buxton was a borderline MVP candidate early in the 2022 season. He had a .215/.295/.550 slashline and 23 home runs in 67 games (138 wRC+) at the All-Star Break two years ago. But hip injuries held him to 25 games to finish out 2022. Last year, knee and hamstring injuries limited Buxton to 85 games, and he didn’t play center field.
Given what Twins management has said publicly about him, there’s reason to be optimistic about Buxton, including that he will play center field again in 2024. Fans will believe it when they see it, but it’s still a positive development for one of their best players. A healthier Buxton also likely means he will likely strike out less. Buxton averaged a 26.7 percent strikeout rate from 2017 to 2021, some of his best seasons as a hitter, where he hit .258/.308/.484 with 58 home runs in 355 games during that span. But he has struggled the last two seasons, with a 30.9 percent strikeout clip since the start of the 2022 season.
Correa also had health issues that hampered him last season. Plantar fasciitis and some back issues led to his worst statistical season at 29 years old. A career-low 1.1 fWAR and .711 OPS was the second-worst in Correa’s nine-season career. Besides avoiding big injuries, Correa needs to clean up a few things in 2024 to get back to his career .272/.351/.468 slashline.
Last year, Correa had trouble crushing fastballs and grounded into a franchise-record 30 double plays in 2023. Correa recorded a -5 rating against fastballs in 2023, which was a massive drop compared to a 17-run value against heaters in 2022. Correa grounded into a high number of double plays partially because he didn’t take advantage of mistakes and smothered pitches into the dirt. But it is also due to his ankle issues limiting his speed considering. His 45.9 percent ground ball rate sits around his 45.5 percent career number.
But fans saw what Correa is capable of in the postseason. Correa played like his old self under October’s bright lights, producing a .409/.458/.545 slashline and 4 RBIs in 6 playoff games. Even if it was a small sample size, it showed that Correa can still produce at a high level against some of baseball’s best competition. A full offseason of rest will hopefully mean Correa can see some of that production in 2024.
If Minnesota’s superstar duo returns to something close to their normal form, they will make more of an impact than any free agent they sign. By playing to the level they are capable of, Buxton and Correa can take the production load off of young hitters like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner.
At their peak, Buxton and Correa belong in the top tier of superstars across baseball. But for most of the last two seasons, Twins fans haven’t seen them play at that level simultaneously. In a winter that’s been devoid of any addition for Twins fans to get excited about for next year’s team, remember that Buxton and Correa playing up to their potential is just as impactful as any free agent they could add this offseason.
