Checking in on the Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects

With an off day today it seemed like it might be a good day to check in on how some of the Cincinnati Reds top prospects have performed in the first few weeks of the season. There’s been a mixed bag of production, and a few injuries that have kept some guys off of the field for a bit of time, too.

Let’s start with the injuries. Among the Top 25 Reds prospects, five guys are currently on the injured list (and one is suspended for 80 games). Edwin Arroyo, the clubs #3 ranked prospect, is out for the season after a shoulder injury in the spring led to shoulder surgery. 2023 1st round pick (38th overall) Ty Floyd injured his elbow this spring and the club shut down the #14 rated prospect from throwing for a bit and he’s been placed on the 60-day injured list. #24 prospect Jose Acuna has also been on the injured list all season.

Outfielder Jay Allen II began the year with High-A Dayton, but he finds himself on the injured list right now with knee inflammation. The #20 prospect expected to return to the lineup soon. Outfielder Jacob Hurtubise, who is on the 40-man roster, is also on the injured list. The #24 prospect injured his shoulder diving for a ball early in the season and has only played in three games with Louisville this year. Outfielder Blake Dunn, the Reds #15 prospect, isn’t on the injured list, but he’s injured and has only been used as a pinch runner for Louisville over the last eight days.

The big performers

While it feels like the Top 25 has a whole lot of injuries going on – and it does – there’s some good stuff going on in there, too. Rhett Lowder, the team’s 1st pick in last years draft and #2 prospect is currently pitching with High-A Dayton and his first two starts have gone quite well. He’s allowed one run in 9.0 innings on six hits and two walks while striking out 10 batters and 67% of the batted balls he has allowed have been on the ground.

After having a solid, but unspectacular 2023 season, Cincinnati’s 2022 1st round pick Cam Collier is out to a great start this season. Still just 19-years-old, the Reds 5th rated prospect began the year with a 9-game hitting streak before it ended last night. Still, he’s hitting .310 with 12 runs batted in, and he’s slugging .548. In his 10 games he’s already hit three home runs for Dayton.

Ricardo Cabrera, the Reds top international signing in 2022, has made his way up to Single-A Daytona and he’s out to a strong start for the Tortugas. The #7 prospect in the farm system is hitting .276/.432/.552 with as many walks as strikeouts through eight games. His .984 OPS is great on it’s own, but when you consider the league average OPS is .661 it really puts into context how well the 19-year-old is hitting currently.

Hector Rodriguez has done nothing but hit since he arrived in trade from the New York Mets in 2022. The outfielder is the team’s #13 prospect and he now finds himself in Dayton where through 11 games he’s hitting .333/.372/.513.

To round this part of the list out, right-handed reliever Zach Maxwell has been dominant for Double-A Chattanooga. The 25th ranked prospect hit 102 MPH last night in Biloxi and through four games he’s allowed one hit, walked two batters, and he’s struck out nine of the 15 hitters he’s faced.

The Struggle Bus

The Pitchers

Connor Phillips and Lyon Richardson both made their big league debut’s last year with the Reds. And they both had their struggles in doing so, but neither were really ready for that promotion but the team was running out of healthy arms and didn’t have much of a choice but to make the moves. Both are now back in Triple-A, but they are both struggling early on.

Phillips, the #4 rated prospect in the system, has made three starts and given up 11 earned runs in 12.1 innings while walking nine batters, hitting another one, and striking out just nine batters. Richardson has a lower ERA – 4.26 – but it’s hiding a lot of struggles within. In 12.2 innings he’s given up 15 hits, hit a batter, walked 15 batters, and struck out just 12.

The Hitters

There’s a group of four hitters in the Top 25 who are really struggling to put the bat on the ball early on this season. Rece Hinds has struck out 30 times in 69 plate appearances so far in Louisville. The 12th rated prospect has historically struggled to make contact, but every level he’s eventually made adjustments and cut down on his strikeouts only to have to then do it again when he’s promoted.

Carlos Jorge has been in the top five in OPS in every league he’s played in in the minor leagues that he’s spent more than a month in. He’s been a very good hitter since he began his career in 2021. But this season the #8 prospect has struck out 18 times in 37 plate appearances to begin his season with Dayton.

Also in Dayton is Victor Acosta. The 19-year-old infielder has struck out 14 times in 30 plate appearances and is hitting just .074. The 19th rated prospect is just 2-27 with a triple so far this year.

Down in Daytona it’s been a struggle for Esmith Pineda. The outfielder ranks as the club’s #21 prospect. The 19-years-old is hitting just .108 and has 17 strikeouts in 40 trips to the plate.

The Standouts

Among the non-Top 25 prospects, a few guys are out to strong starts, and none better than that of Dominic Pitelli. The 22-year-old was Cincinnati’s 7th round pick last year out of Miami. He’s a bit old for the Single-A Florida State League, but he’s also hitting .436/.450/.769 with five doubles, a triple, two home runs, and four stolen bases in the first nine games of the season.

Also down in Daytona is Brian Edgington. He is very old to still be in Single-A Daytona, but the 25-year-old has 15 strikeouts without a walk and has allowed just seven hits in 14.0 innings to go with a 1.29 ERA.

Edgington’s rotation mate Adam Serwinowski is much more age appropriate. The 20-year-old lefty has made two starts and has allowed just three hits and walked one batter to go along with 12 strikeouts in 8.0 shutout innings for the Tortugas.