The Phillies rotation is not normal
The Phillies rotation is off to a truly special start.
Through 29 games, the staff ranks second in the league in ERA (2.36), third in strikeouts-per-nine innings (9.44) and first in FanGraphs WAR (4.4). The rotation is also first among all MLB teams in innings pitched at 175 1/3, 12 1/3 more innings than the second-place Kansas City Royals.
As the rest of baseball yearns for the days when starters consistently threw six or seven innings, the Phillies are turning back the clock.
They lead all of baseball in starts lasting at least six, seven and eight innings. Both Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez, who each have two starts lasting at least eight innings, have more starts of eight innings or more than every other team in baseball.
Zack Wheeler has gone at least six innings in five of his six starts. Even Cristopher Sánchez, who has arguably been the worst pitcher of the bunch, has a 2.96 ERA and two quality starts out of five. “Fifth starter” Spencer Turnbull has also held opponents scoreless in three of his five starts and has one of the best ERAs among National League starters at 1.33. He’ll get one more start on Tuesday and is expected to move to the bullpen soon after with Taijuan Walker back.
But Suárez taking another step forward is the most positive development. He is 5-0 with a 1.32 ERA in six starts. Opponents are batting .153 against him and getting out on the ground. Suárez is in the 96th percentile in ground ball rate (62.2%) and 99th percentile in average exit velocity (81.9 mph), according to Statcast. His walk rate is also down from 8.9% in 2023 to 3.5%.
His ability to change speeds, hit the corners and induce weak contact has opponents frustrated.
“I was upset; I was mad,” the Padres’ Eguy Rosario said about Suárez to reporters after Saturday’s game. “Because he was playing with us.” Rosario ambushed one of Suárez’s only mistake pitches for a home run to break up the shutout after striking out and grounding out in two previous at-bats against him on Saturday.
Catcher J.T. Realmuto echoed a similar sentiment.
“My job, it’s as easy right now as it’s ever been with our pitching staff,” Realmuto told NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman. “These guys are so good, they’re so much fun to work with. Just getting to manipulate lineups and do different things to hitters. We’re facing some really good hitters and making them look silly more often than most teams would be able to.”
What the Phillies rotation is doing is also impressive in the context of the starting pitching shortage every other National League contender is dealing with.
The Atlanta Braves are up there with the Phillies amongst the best rotations in baseball, but their ace Spencer Strider will miss the rest of the season after undergoing an internal brace procedure. They’re piecing together his spot for now and are relying on a resurgent 35-year-old Chris Sale and 40-year-old Charlie Morton. Free agent signing Reynaldo Lopez has a 0.72 ERA, but is working as a starter for the first time since the end of the 2021 season and is likely on an innings restriction.
The Dodgers, as always, are dealing with major starting pitching injuries. Young starters Bobby Miller (right shoulder inflammation) and Emmet Sheehan (right forearm inflammation) are out. They lead all of baseball in relief innings pitched, which is usually a good indication of how healthy and effective the starting staff is.
The Brewers, after trading ace Corbin Burnes before the start of spring training, continue to grind out victories, but are down Wade Miley (Tommy John surgery), DL Hall (left knee sprain) and Jakob Junis (right shoulder impingement). The Cubs are down Justin Steele (hamstring strain), Kyle Hendricks (back strain) and Jordan Wicks (forearm strain). The Mets are also missing Kodai Senga (right shoulder strain), David Peterson (torn labrum) and Tylor Megill (right shoulder strain). The Phillies will miss out on seeing Blake Snell (left adductor strain) in the upcoming four-game series against the Giants. Although he is expected to pitch Friday, breakout reliever turned starter Jordan Hicks is expected to be OK after dealing with left side tightness in his last start against Pittsburgh.
This is not to suggest that the Phillies have figured something out and are immune to the crisis that’s going on around them. It’s inevitable that something will pop up and a starter will have to miss at least one start.
But there’s also something to be said about Wheeler and Nola’s track record of durability and how Suárez, who had three injured list stints over the last two seasons, is at his best after his first normal spring training since 2019. Rob Thomson mentioning that Walker had a blister appear during his first start on Sunday is probably the scariest thing that’s happen to the rotation so far this season.
The team will worry about these things when they come up, but right now, Phillies fans can feel great about their team’s chances to win on any given night because every member of the current rotation is capable of dealing.
They are the exception, not the norm. Embrace it for as long as you can.
