Toronto Maple Leafs Unlikely to Trade Mitch Marner Before July 1st

The Toronto Maple Leafs cannot trade forward Mitch Marner unless he agrees to waive his no-movement clause (NMC).

Marner, who is under contract for one more season with a $10.9 million salary cap hit, controls his fate. There is no indication from within the Toronto Maple Leafs organization that suggests a desire to trade Marner, but that hasn’t stopped the speculation and trade rumors. (All salary cap info from capfriendly.com)

The Leafs could present Mitch Marner with a few favored destinations and see if he’d be willing to go to those teams before asking him to waive his NMC. As much as Marner will tell anyone who asks that he loves playing for the Leafs, I’m sure there are a few other teams he wouldn’t mind playing for.

However, even if the Leafs can convince Marner to waive his NMC, any possible trade is unlikely to happen before July 1st. Due to the structure of Marner’s contract, he is due a $7.25 million signing bonus on July 1st that most teams would like to avoid paying. After the signing bonus, Marner’s base salary is $775,000. This means that even though he would count as $10.9 million against a team’s salary cap, the team only needs to pay him $775,000.

Some teams in the NHL have internal budgets, and these budgets can prevent them from spending the maximum salary cap amount. Having Marner on your team for a $775,000 salary while helping you eat up cap space with his $10.9 million cap hit is an attractive business opportunity. It is unclear how much Marner will seek on his next deal, but one would think a contract extension must be part of any trade for him to agree to it. Here is a look at a few possible trade options.

Clearly the Leafs are in a weak position if they trade Marner, so it’s at least plausible they could wait until paying out the bonus in order to maximize their return.

Marner Trade Options for Toronto Maple Leafs: Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh Penguins

Trading Marner to the Pittsburgh Penguins would reunite him with former Leafs GM Kyle Dubas. Former teammate Michael Bunting is there as well. Marner would be allowed to play with Sidney Crosby, which might not be as special as it once was, but leaving Matthews for Crosby isn’t too bad of a trade-off.

The Leafs number one trade target from the Penguins roster should be defenseman Erik Karlsson. Karlsson is 33-years-old, but still registered 11 goals and 45 assists for 56 points this season. His salary cap hit is $10 million which is slightly cheaper than Marner’s and he is under contract until the end of the 2026-27 season. Karlsson would also be an upgrade to the Leafs power play.
(All stats from hockey-reference.com)

Carolina Hurricanes

Accepting a trade to the Carolina Hurricanes would reunite Marner with his friend Frederik Andersen. Andersen, like Marner, is under contract for one more season. The two players became close friends during their time together with the Leafs. Acquiring Marner from the Leafs wouldn’t be too difficult for the Hurricanes as they have a ton of cap space ($27.3 million) this off-season.

Figuring out which players the Leafs would target from the Hurricanes in a trade is tricky. Instead of a bonafide defenseman or goaltender, the Leafs might target a younger player like Seth Jarvis, plus draft picks and a prospect or two.

Jarvis is a 22-year-old right-wing who registered 33 goals and 34 assists for 67 points in 81 games this season. He is a restricted free agent (RFA) this off-season, so the Leafs will need to sign him once acquired. Even after signing Jarvis, the Leafs would still have a chunk of Marner’s cap available to spend elsewhere.

Marner Trade Options for Toronto Maple Leafs: Western Conference

Nashville Predators

Trading Marner to the Nashville Predators could lead to the Leafs acquiring goaltender Juuse Saros. Both Marner and Saros need contract extensions beyond next season. Perhaps both teams could agree to contract extensions with the players before a deal is finalized. Saros has one more season on his current deal worth $5 million. With $26 million in available cap space, the Predators could take on Marner’s $10.9 million cap hit, especially with almost half of that amount going back to the Leafs in Saros.

Saros posted a 35-24-5 record with three shutouts in 64 games. He finished the regular season with a 2.86 GAA and a .906 SV%. He is not a proven playoff-winning goaltender, but one of the better goaltenders available via trade.

Colorado Avalanche

Trading Marner to the Colorado Avalanche would involve multiple players coming to the Leafs, as the Avalanche would be losing a large chunk of their $15.9 million cap space by adding Marner’s $10.9 million. Marner might be willing to waive his NMC to go to a proven winner with a chance to play with Nathan MacKinnon.

A possible trade with the Avalanche could net the Leafs forward Casey Mittlestadt, defenseman Josh Manson, and the combination of draft picks and prospects.