One player every MLB team should trade for (or away) this July

We’re just under a month away from the July 30 MLB trade deadline — and it’s shaping up as one of the most unpredictable deadlines in a long time.

At the start of this week on Monday, just 5.5 games separated nine teams for the final two wild-card spots in the National League, with only the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies definitely out of the playoff picture. In the American League, only three teams look out of it, although projected playoff contenders like the defending champion Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays are fading fast and need to start turning things around.

What happens on the field over the next 28 days will have a huge effect on what ultimately happens off it — let alone the impact it will have on how aggressive some of those wild-card contenders may or may not be with their trades. Factoring in where teams are in the standings, let’s name one major league player each team should trade for — or away — before the deadline.

White Sox: Trade away Garrett Crochet

The White Sox haven’t done much right the past three seasons, but converting Crochet from a reliever to a starter — coming off Tommy John surgery in 2022 no less — has proved to be one of the more astute decisions from any team in recent years. Even in college at Tennessee, Crochet primarily pitched out of the bullpen, but he has been a revelation as a starter, averaging 97 mph with his fastball while striking out a blistering 12.4 batters per nine innings. To put that number in perspective, only five left-handers have ever averaged 12 K’s per nine while throwing at least 125 innings.

One of those lefties was Chris Sale — and the White Sox were in this position with Sale when they traded him to the Red Sox after the 2016 season while he still had three seasons on a team-friendly contract. Crochet is eligible for free agency after 2026 so also has three seasons left of control (including 2024), and he’s making only $800,000 this season, increasing his trade value even more.

Of course, Sale was an established star, whereas Crochet has pitched at this level for just three months. Still, with 3.8 WAR, Crochet compares favorably with the top starters traded over the past five deadlines:

2023: Justin Verlander (2.2 WAR)
2022: Luis Castillo (2.9 WAR)
2021: Max Scherzer (3.3 WAR)
2019: Zack Greinke (4.3 WAR)
2018: Cole Hamels (1.3 WAR)

Given Crochet’s contract and years remaining until free agency, if the White Sox do decide to trade him, it will shake up the deadline with a rarely available top-of-the-rotation starter on an inexpensive contract. Yes, there will be concerns about Crochet’s durability, and the White Sox have already started conserving his innings — “We’re going to start dwindling his workload down a little bit, and we’ll manage that correctly,” manager Pedro Grifol said last week — but Crochet projects as a difference-maker in October.

The White Sox don’t have to trade him, but what are the odds of them building a playoff contender before Crochet is eligible for free agency? Unless they think there’s a chance of signing him to a long-term extension that takes him into his free agent years, his value is so high right now, and the lack of talent on the roster so acute, it makes sense to try to pull off a blockbuster deal.

Orioles/Dodgers/Brewers/Padres: Trade for Crochet

Which teams would be most likely to land Crochet? His salary means any team can afford him, but history suggests teams already in a strong playoff position are the ones most likely to make a trade like this, not a team merely fighting to stay in the wild-card race. Consider those pitchers above:

— Verlander: Astros were a half-game out of first place

— Castillo: Mariners were well out of first place but were in a wild-card position and trying to end a long playoff drought

— Scherzer: Dodgers were battling the Giants for the NL West lead

— Greinke: Astros had a big lead and were on their way to 107 wins

— Hamels: Cubs were 1.5 games up on the Brewers

In order to acquire Crochet, a team will also need a top farm system. The Yankees and Phillies don’t really need a starting pitcher, so that leaves four teams most likely to make a push for Crochet.