The Orioles shifted their draft strategy last year in selecting Enrique Bradfield Jr. If they continue to target players with elite traits, these players could be headed to Baltimore.

For a five-year stretch between 2018 and 2022, draft day was the highlight of Birdland’s in-season calendar. While the on-field product was going through the growing pains of a total rebuild, the draft provided a moment of unmitigated hope as the Orioles started to build a better future.

With the Orioles squarely entrenched in the upper echelon on MLB teams, that better future is now. With the current lineup centered around five Mike Elias draft picks, the drafts from those dark days are now the backbone of a true World Series contender.

This drastic shift in the team’s success means both the front office and fans now see the draft differently. Gone are the days where the Orioles have their pick of the very best players in a given class. One of the challenges that comes with being a winning franchise is drafting well without those premium picks and keeping your minor league system well stocked.

Teams like the Dodgers and Braves have been consistently successful over the last decade because they’ve maintained both their major league squad and their minor league depth. Both of those franchises have found stars with lower first round picks, like Walker Buehler for LA and Austin Riley for Atlanta,i and that is the example the Orioles will try to follow.

Last year, the Orioles front office broke from their previous tendency of targeting power-first college bats when they selected Enrique Bradfield Jr. with the No. 17 pick. The rationale for targeting Bradfield was clear. As one of the few players with 80-grade speed and the best defensive outfielder in the draft, Bradfield still offered elite traits outside the top picks.

With the No. 22 pick in the 2024 draft, Mike Elias & Co. could again choose to ignore their previous draft strategy and target players with elite traits. With that possibility in mind, let’s look at three draft prospects who can bring elite traits to the best minor league system in baseball.

Brody Brecht, RHP University of Iowa (MLB.com’s No.21 draft prospect)

It’s no secret that the Orioles could use some pitching depth, both at the major league level and in the minors. That need makes Brecht an intriguing fit, should he make it down to the O’s pick at 22. Brecht has two elite pitches in his 70-grade fastball and slider. MLB.com’s write up on Brecht pays him one of the highest compliments you can at the moment, saying, “When he’s on, Brecht’s fastball and slider are comparable to those of Paul Skenes.” The same Paul Skenes who just became the first No. 1 overall pick to make an All-Star game the year after being drafted.

The concern with Brecht is that he isn’t always “on.” Far from it, in fact. His 40-grade command is the worst of any pitcher projected to go in the first round. And while his BB/9 did improve year-to-year throughout his college career, his 5.6 BB/9 as a junior is more than two walks higher than the MLB average in 2023.

All that being said, the Orioles do have a track record of helping players improve their command throughout the minors. Kyle Bradish posted a 4.9 BB/9 rate in his junior season at New Mexico State, but has lowered it all the way to 2.9 throughout his major league career. Félix Bautista and Dean Kremer have also significantly improved their command since joining the O’s organization. Brecht carries the risk of being another DL Hall type, even at his best. But with his unique stuff, he’d be a worthwhile gamble with the 22nd pick.

Vance Honeycutt, OF University of North Carolina (No.22 prospect)

Honeycutt is to this draft’s college bats what Brecht is to the college arms. That is to say, he’s chock full of elite traits, but with a glaring weakness. Honeycutt’s combo of 70-grade fielding, 65-grade speed and 60-grade power is not something you see in many outfield prospects, let alone one projected to go outside the Top 10 picks. For context, Dylan Crews—the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft—had 55-grade fielding and 60-grade speed to go along with an equivalent power grade.

The problem with the 21-year-old Tar Heel is that there is a ton of swing-and-miss in his game. Honeycutt struck out 224 times in 693 ABs at UNC, for a worrying 32% K rate. Only two MLB hitters had a 32+% K rate in 2023, and the concern with Honeycutt is that his lack of plate discipline will only get worse against better competition.

The Orioles aren’t usually a team that shies away from hitters with strikeout concerns. Both Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo had lower hitting tool grades as draft prospects, and both overcame those concerns on the way to becoming two of the best hitting prospects in baseball. Honeycutt’s blend of power and defense gives him just as high of an upside as either Kjerstad or Mayo.