It’s unsurprising to hear opposing clubs are keeping their eye on Valdez. He’d be an upgrade for any rotation in MLB. He has reached 31 starts in each of the past two seasons, leading the American League with 201 1/3 innings back in 2022. Valdez has paired that volume with excellent results, working to a 3.40 ERA over parts of six seasons in the big leagues. He has allowed 3.13 earned runs per nine over the past three years, striking out 23.5% of batters faced and keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 63% clip.

Given that level of success, plenty of teams would be interested if the Astros put Valdez on the trade market. There’s no indication the Houston front office is seriously entertaining that possibility at this point. In response to trade chatter about third baseman Alex Bregman, Houston GM Dana Brown flatly shot down the idea at the Winter Meetings, saying the team is “trying to win here.”

The club could take a similar stance on Valdez. He’s arguably the best pitcher on a team with championship aspirations. Houston’s rotation is solid but has taken some injury hits in recent months. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are each expected to miss roughly half the season as they rehab arm surgeries. The Astros reacquired Justin Verlander to join Valdez and Cristian Javier in the rotation’s top three. José Urquidy joins second-year pitchers Hunter Brown and J.P. France as possibilities at the back end.

Any argument in favor of a Valdez trade is tied to Houston’s payroll outlook. Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll around $222M, well above last year’s approximate $180M Opening Day figure. They’re projected right at the $237M luxury-tax threshold, which they haven’t surpassed since 2020. Dana Brown has been rather forthright about the limited money at the front office’s disposal.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $12.1M salary in his third of four arbitration seasons. With a typically strong season, he’d likely be in line for something in the $18M range in 2025. Valdez is on track to hit free agency during the 2025-26 offseason at age 32. Brown has previously expressed a desire to extend key players like Valdez, Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve. Thus far, the second-year GM has only worked out a long-term deal with Javier, although there’s a general expectation they’ll be able to get something done with Altuve at some point.

While a trade of a veteran on a notable salary would provide some payroll flexibility, it’s worth noting that Houston doesn’t have a ton of needs on the roster. The Astros replaced Martín Maldonado with Víctor Caratini behind the dish. They appear content with their in-house outfielders despite losing Michael Brantley. While they could stand to add middle innings depth after seeing Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton hit free agency, trading Valdez to create spending room for a low-leverage relievers wouldn’t make much sense in the short term. A deal could recoup controllable pitching and add some talent to a barren farm system, but it’d be at the expense of a win-now roster.

One less impactful possibility would be to entertain offers on Urquidy. He’s only projected for a $3.5M salary, so the cost savings would be fairly modest. Yet the front office could look to move him on the heels of an injury-plagued season in which he turned in a 5.29 ERA across 16 appearances. Rosenthal notes that the Astros have looked to trade Urquidy on prior occasions. The return wouldn’t be anywhere near what they’d receive were they to move Valdez, of course, but a deal that sends Urquidy to a rotation-needy team for bullpen help isn’t far-fetched.