Opinion: Projecting the Cincinnati Reds Starting Rotation
The Cincinnati Reds enter the 2024 season looking to build off what was an exciting second half of the year, watching the organization’s youth play key roles within the lineup. The pitching staff has added firepower to the arsenal for this upcoming season, which will be interesting to watch during the spring to see how the rotation shapes out.
Rostered Options
As of today, the Reds currently have the following on their 40 Roster for realistic options to plug into the starting rotation. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbot, Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson, Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez and Nick Lodolo. Montas and Martinez are the new additions to the squad, and Lodolo missed time last season due to an injury that, after rehabbing, found a stress fracture in his left fibula requiring surgery, so it’s possible he could start the year under a pitch count or even on the IL. Of the four options who made over 20 starts last season for the Reds, Andrew Abbot experienced the most success numbers-wise.
Hunter Greene
I believe Hunter is the clear number-one starter for this club and has tremendous potential when fully healthy. Last season, Greene started 22 games pitching 112 innings with a 4-7 record and a 4.82 ERA. It’s pretty hard to expect your offense to score five runs each outing to be eligible for the win. During his 112 innings pitched, Greene struck out 152 hitters, walked 48, and had a WHIP of 1.42. Last season, he gave up 19 home runs, so almost one per start, which again will need to be better if the Reds expect to see a rebound season from Greene.
Andrew Abbott
After last season, I believe Abbott deserves to be atop this rotation behind Greene. The lefty started 21 games last season, pitching 109.1 innings with a 3.87 ERA. Abbott went 8-6 with 120 strikeouts, gave up 16 home runs and a WHIP of 1.317 over his 109.1 innings. Abbott did walk 44 batters last season, and if he can lower that BB percentage entering year two of his major league career, the Reds could have a star in the making.
Frankie Montas
The Reds recently signed Montas and will look to contribute right away. Being the third starter is where I would personally plug him in. He has recently pitched for the Oakland A’s and the New York Yankees. While Montas has only started over 30 games once in his career and only reached 140 innings plus twice, he has tremendous potential and, if healthy, could be a steal this free agency period. 2021 was his best season to date when he was pitching for the A’s. He started in 32 games, threw 187 innings, went 13-9, struck out 207 batters, walked 57, and had an ERA of 3.37 and a WHIP of 1.182. So, the talent is evident. His health will be the only question surrounding Montas this season.
Brandon Williamson
Williamson, in my mind, makes the most sense based on last year’s performance to occupy the 4th rotation spot for this upcoming season. At the same time, he was only .500 with his win percentage during 23 starts going 5-5. He threw 117 innings last season. While he isn’t the strikeout pitcher like some of the previously mentioned starters, he did strike out 98 batters last season. Williamson had an ERA of 4.46 and a WHIP of 1.282, which was the best of the four starters from last year’s rotation. Keeping Williamson in the rotation and hopefully seeing him lower his ERA a smidge could see him provide an improved record while being a serviceable 4th starter for the Reds.
Nick Martinez
Matinez has been used in multiple roles as a spot starter and in a relief role in his major league career. I think He will start the season as the 5th starter over Graham Ashcraft this season while the team awaits the health of Nick Lodolo to settle and his arm strength is ready. Even then, I can see Lodolo being monitored throughout the season. Martinez has pitched for the Texas Rangers and, for the last two seasons, with the San Diego Padres. Over the last two seasons, he started 19 games while appearing in 110 games total. Last season, he started nine games and appeared in 63 games, going 6-4 with a 3.43 ERA. Martinez threw 110.1 Innings, struck out 106 batters, and had a WHIP of 1.260.
Who’s left out
Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo are both talented arms for the Reds. Lodolo is recovering from surgery to repair a fracture to his leg; while Ashcraft statistically was the worst of the arms from last year’s teams in my eyes, he will be left out of the rotation and most likely start the year in Triple-A or perhaps in the bullpen for long relieve, which I think would be a waste. Lodolo will be interesting to watch as spring training opens to see when he starts to throw for the team. My guess, and from what I am hearing, is the team will be careful with him coming off the leg injury, which could mean we see him back two months into the season or later. At the time of return, Martinez would shift to the bullpen and serve as a long relief pitcher and when needed a spot starter which he has experience bouncing between the two roles. Either way, you shake it. The Reds have options, and with a bit of luck dealing with folks staying healthy and a rebound season from Hunter Greene, this team should have an improved rotation in 2024.
