2 extensions the Detroit Tigers should pursue, 2 they should pass on
In late January, the Detroit Tigers extended their No. 2 prospect Colt Keith for six years on a guaranteed $28.6 million contract. This week, news followed that the Royals were doing the same (except, perhaps, far more expensive) thing with their star, Bobby Witt Jr. In December, the Brewers also extended their No. 1 prospect Jackson Chourio for eight years and $82 million, the largest contract ever doled out to a player without major league playing time.
These moves have largely been heralded as good moves for these teams, especially as they remain in the mid-to-small market zone. They’re risky, surely, but they also give both the team a figure to highlight and build around, and fans someone to be excited for. Keith will make his MLB debut this year and is expected to play at second for the majority of the season.
Who should the Detroit Tigers target next after Colt Keith extension?
The Tigers aren’t exactly known for taking too many risks under a Scott Harris-led front office, but might they consider taking a chance on a few more of their young players after extended Keith? Detroit’s mindset this offseason has been to develop those players instead of buying free agents, so the team’s dedication to their young core is already known. They could take it a step further and give a few more players a shot at being lifelong Tigers.
2 contract extensions the Detroit Tigers should pursue
Spencer Torkelson
Torkelson, the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, has already started to come up big for the Tigers. He rocketed through the minors in 2021 and ended the season in Triple-A, with a .935 OPS on the year across all levels. He was called up in 2022 after 35 more games in Toledo and became the team’s everyday first baseman after Miguel Cabrera fully bowed out of duties there after the 2021 season. Torkelson had a bit of a clumsy start to 2022 and saw his power numbers dip significantly from where they were in Triple-A, but he recovered well in 2023 and only missed three games on the entire season.
He batted .233/.313/.446 and hit 31 home runs with 94 RBI, and his consistent presence on the field last year is setting him up as a leader in the Tigers’ very young clubhouse, especially after Miguel Cabrera’s departure. If Torkelson can improve his strikeout numbers by laying off the ball a little more and work on hitting for average, he could be fearsome at the plate. He’s only 24, so he has a lot of life in him as a major leaguer. If the Tigers can make the best of their offseason additions to get the team to the top of the division, and Torkelson can keep being as consistent as he’s been, the Tigers should consider making him a Detroiter for life.
Riley Greene
Another first-round pick for the Tigers back in 2019, Greene has been the subject of a lot of Detroit’s hopes over the past few years, but he hasn’t quite managed to stay healthy. He’s only managed to play in just under 100 games for the past two seasons — first because of a broken foot, then because of elbow inflammation that led to Tommy John — but what we’ve seen from him when he is on the field has oftentimes been thrilling. He’s shown incredible range and speed in the outfield, and his .349 OBP was a team-best mark in 2023. And he once hit a leadoff home run off of Shohei Ohtani.
We haven’t seen the best of Greene yet, but his .288/.349/.447 line last year gave us a lot to look forward to. The fact that he does seem pretty breakable could be a concern for the Tigers, especially given that he’s still only 23, but if his luck turns and he can stay healthy over the next few years, he could be a strong extension candidate. The team is already excited about him and believe in him so much that they’ve been resistant to signing big free agent outfielders so as not to supplant him. If he can come up in 2024 and perform (and strike out less, as is a common theme for these Tigers), it could endear him even more to the front office and spell a big contract down the line.
2 contract extensions the Detroit Tigers should pass on
Kerry Carpenter
Yet another homegrown Tiger, Carpenter came 18 rounds after Greene in the 2019 draft. He never cracked MLB Pipeline’s top 30 prospects ranking, but he got a call up in 2022 after absolutely mashing his way though Double- and Triple-A, with a pretty unbelievable .313/.380/.645 line over the year. His first 31 games in the majors that year were similarly promising, and he put a .485 slugging percentage with six home runs and a triple. He got more playing time in 2023 but didn’t quite hit 120 games, as the team made sure to get Cabrera his last at-bats in as their primary DH before retirement. When Carpenter did hit, he hit well, with a higher batting average and OBP compared to 2022, along with 20 home runs and 64 RBI.
Given those numbers, Carpenter might also seem like an extension candidate, but he does have weaknesses in the outfield. He actually got most of his turns there in 2023, with 91 appearances in right or left as opposed to 27 at DH. His arm strength is nearing elite, but he’s fumbled in the outfield and ended the season with a -3 OAA. The Tigers heavily value versatility, which is why they have so many utility players on the roster, and conflicting reports can’t seem to agree on whether or not Carpenter will be an everyday DH this year. If he’s not, then the Tigers will kick him back to the outfield, which could be to the team’s detriment. He’s also a few years older than Greene and Torkelson, giving him less time to prove himself before the announcement of a significant contract extension would come down.
Tarik Skubal
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Skubal was a standout for the Tigers’ rotation last year, but only managed to pitch 80 innings after coming off of flexor tendon surgery. Those innings were the best of his career so far, and he wrapped up the season with a very nice 2.80 ERA and 102 strikeouts. However, look a little further back, and he’s struggled a lot more. He pitched over 250 innings through 2021 and 2022 for a near-4.00 ERA, though he did manage to keep his walk and home run rates through nine relatively low.
The Tigers haven’t seen enough consistent greatness out of Skubal to offer an extension, and he could be a potent trade piece that would net the team some nice returns. He’s also already 27 and his effectiveness as a pitcher could depreciate with age. If he’s performing well enough and the Tigers don’t trade him this year, he’s still under team control for three years before hitting free agency and could be an asset until then, but at this point, there may be too many factors not entirely in his favor that could eliminate the possibility of an extension.
