It certainly seemed to catch the 49ers off guard when, in the wake of their Super Bowl loss, the usually mild-mannered Brandon Aiyuk came out with a decidedly noncommittal statement on his future with the team. That’s opened the way for the possibility—or, even, probability of an Aiyuk trade this offseason as he is in line for a sizable contract extension that the 49ers will have difficulty paying.

That started when those in Aiyuk’s circle, earlier this month, posted social media messages implying that Aiyuk is heading elsewhere. His close friend Draysean Hudson pointed out that Aiyuk had only three catches in the Super Bowl and added, “This is the exact reason why we leaving San Francisco.”

When those posts were brought up to Aiyuk he did not attempt to brush them off, saying he would stay with the 49ers only if it were, “the right move.” He also seemed bothered on social media by his lack of catches in the Super Bowl when he posted, “Don’t forget what got you there.”

That has set up a number of potential trade scenarios for the 49ers, including a sensible one that would send him to the up-and-coming Texans, as proposed by Bleacher Report. In that deal, the 49ers would get back a first- and third-round pick in the 2024 draft, while giving up a sixth-rounder.

Brandon Aiyuk Trade Could Yield High Picks

In an article highlighting “5 Trade That NFL Teams Can Make for Salary Cap Relief,” writer Maurice Moton put forth the two picks-for-Aiyuk proposal and explained that:

“If the 49ers trade Aiyuk, they can likely get first- and middle-round picks in a deal that compares to the A.J. Brown trade between the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles two years ago.

“In this trade scenario, the 49ers would get an earlier third-round pick than the Titans received from the Eagles, which would allow them to fill another hole on their roster with a rookie who could play right away.”

While that is true, the 49ers would and should be reluctant to go into the 2024 season relying too heavily on a rookie to replace Aiyuk, given the fact that Aiyuk tallied 1,342 yards on 75 catches, with a 17.9 yards-per-catch average. He was seventh in yardage and No. 2 in the NFL in yards per catch.

Chance of 49ers Return?

Aiyuk is, technically, under contract on his fifth-year option next season, at $14 million. The 49ers could attempt to bring him into next season on that deal, but there is just about a 100% chance he would hold out for a new deal. Spotrac projects Aiyuk for a contract at $23 million per year, and expects him to warrant an extension of four years and $92 million.

During a deep dive into the Aiyuk situation in San Francisco, ESPN insider Dan Graziano pointed out that the team could work out a way to keep Aiyuk if it made signing him to an extension an absolute priority. They’d have to cut other top players, like fullback Kyle Juszczyk and injured Dre Greenlaw, but if they’re willing to get ruthless to keep Aiyuk, those are options.

“The Aiyuk situation, given the way the rest of the wide receiver market still hasn’t shaken out, is going to be very difficult for the 49ers to navigate this offseason,” Graziano wrote.

“The most likely way this shakes out is Aiyuk ends up getting traded to a team where he’s the clear No. 1 wideout and where he can get the extension he wants, leaving the Niners to draft his replacement in the first round.”

Ah but there is one other possibility—keeping Aiyuk and trading away the other star 49ers receiver, Deebo Samuel. Coach Kyle Shanahan loves the versatility of Samuel, though, and he has been banged up in recent years, making it more difficult to trade him.