4 Pirates bold predictions as MLB spring training gets underway

Hard-throwing Paul Skenes eager to show the Pirates what he's got during his first spring training | wwltv.com

If you’re the Pittsburgh Pirates, the start of Spring Training at least signals that all things are new again and that records won’t count toward the regular season, good or bad. But if you’ve watched the Pirates enough, you know that it’s usually only a matter of time before things turn bad and the regular season quickly gets away from them again.

The Pirates have been the definition of bad baseball, placing fourth or fifth in the NL Central for the last seven seasons. But what’s worse is this is a franchise that has more or less gotten used to losing, so winning may seem abnormal. Since 1984, they’ve placed in last in their division 15 times, only making the postseason six times. Their last playoff appearance was nearly a decade ago, back in 2015. In the last 40 years, the franchise has only posted seven seasons of .500 or better baseball, according to Baseball-Reference.

Last season didn’t start off too bad for the Pirates. On June 15, they were up half a game in the NL Central, sitting at 34-33, but then it went downhill quickly. They lost their next nine out of 10 games, were shut out in four of them, and never quite recovered from that point. They finished at 76-86, 16 games back of division winners, the Milwaukee Brewers.

In what looks to be a rather wide-open NL Central again this season, do the Pirates get any love? Let’s get into some Pirates bold predictions for the 2024 season.

Paul Skenes won’t be called up until well after the All-Star break

Pirates fans are waiting in anticipation to see the team’s No. 1 pick from last year’s draft make his debut. But it won’t be on Opening Day, and it may not be for a while. General Manager Ben Cherington noted that the young right-hander has not even played a full Minor League season yet, per MLB.com.

“We’re also trying to put him in a position where he has the best chance possible to help us win games in Pittsburgh as soon as possible. We just think a little bit more time in Major League Spring Training around our staff, players, the catching group, the game-planning process, kind of everything about it, hopefully can speed that up just a little bit more. And then that’ll play into how we get the season started and what the volume progression looks like going into the season.”

It’s understandable if you’re the Pirates to want to get Skenes as much experience as possible before he faces big league hitters. However, depending on how the rotation fills out this season, and if Skenes keeps progressing in the minors, don’t be surprised to see him in the big leagues later in the season.

The Pirates told Skenes early in March that he wouldn’t be a part of the Opening Day roster.

Roansy Contreras won’t make the 2024 Pirates Opening Day roster

Thank goodness it’s only Spring Training, but at this point, Contreras is fighting for a rotation spot. Through three games during the Pirates’ Spring Training, Contreras has given up nine runs, five earned with a homer and four walks for a putrid 6.75 ERA with only one punch out. His fastball velocity is said to be back, but that obviously isn’t striking hitters out as of yet.

There was hope that the 24-year-old could have a bounce-back season after a very promising 2022 where he went 5-5 with a 3.79 ERA in 95 innings pitched. But his second season didn’t go as well, and his ERA skyrocketed to 6.59, ending up with a 3-7 record.

The Pirates have a lot of young arms they could be relying on this season, so don’t be surprised to see Contreras at some point, it just might not be on Opening Day.

Like how most things go for the Pirates, they can’t have nice things. Last season, we only got Oneil Cruz for nine games before he broke his ankle and his season came to an abrupt end. In all, Cruz has only gotten playing time in 98 games in his young career, so we’re just beginning to scratch the surface with him.

The 6-foot-7, 215-pounder comes with speed and size, which is a lethal combination, especially in the current era of baseball. Given a full season this year, barring any unforeseen injuries or long slumps, Cruz could be in line for a breakout season, where we see him hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases.

Pirates finish third in the NL Central

The Pirates of 2023 actually made an improvement by 14 games from the previous season. This is still a young team that is really just getting started. They have some key pieces in place, including an ace in Mitch Keller, along with core pieces in Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds. To add to that will be veterans Andrew McCutchen and Rowdy Telez, who are nice complements to the youth of the team. Johan Oviedo will be out after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

While the lineup has some promise, it’s the starting rotation that gets concerning outside of Keller. That leaves the rest of the rotation up to the likes of veteran Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales, who the Pittsburgh went and picked up during the offseason. From there, it gets pretty murky with the organization hoping some guys separate themselves by the end of Spring Training.

But the division itself is rather murky. Sure, the Cubs should be a favorite, or maybe even the Reds. And who knows exactly what to expect of the Brewers now that skipper Craig Counsell left for Chicago. Being that this is a bold prediction, the Pirates will finish their best in the division since 2016, in third place.

Tags: Pittsburgh Pirates NEWS