Should the Jaguars Consider Trading For 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk?
A report surfaced this week that the Jaguars were sniffing around a trade for San Francisco 49ers star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. We have zero confirmation this report is one hundred percent true but what we can do is take the idea and run with it. The hypothetical trade looked like this:
This sparked debate among the fan base about whether or not they should have pulled the trigger on this deal. It felt like the majority of fans were against it for a multitude of reasons. The consensus arguments against the trade essentially fell into three categories: 1. He’s not good enough to warrant pick 17 and Zay Jones. 2. The trade is fine but paying him is the issue. 3. Just draft a receiver at pick 17. Personally, I disagree with all three of those sentiments. The Jaguars found themselves with their metaphorical pants down after losing Calvin Ridley to the Tennessee Titans. Their plan looked so smart until the deadline hit and the Titans offered Ridley a deal he couldn’t refuse. Gabe Davis signing as a free agent is a great fit for the team. I love his ability to take the top off a defense. His game speed is far better than Jones and I look forward to Trevor finally having a weapon who can be multiple steps behind the defense. He also has great size at 6’2” as a red zone target and he was even a great scramble drill option for Josh Allen. With that said, that is still a niche role. He is not a true X receiver in the NFL and that is what this offense needs. The Jaguars cannot afford to start the 2024 season with a starting wide receiver group of Gabe Davis, Zay Jones, and Christian Kirk. Enter Brandon Aiyuk. He is a top receiver in this league, worth figuring out the salary cap later for, and a much safer bet than gambling at pick 17 in April. ARGUMENT 1 I’m shocked at how many people genuinely think Brandon Aiyuk is a system receiver. Coming into the 2020 draft, the profile on him was he was an elite route runner with burst and athleticism who could create after the catch. The scouts nailed this one and all of those skills have translated to his game in the pros.
Aiyuk averages just shy of 100 targets a season so far in his career. Sure, the 49ers score a lot and run a lot of plays but you can’t take away the fact that he’s commanded that many targets in an offense featuring Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and for the last season and half Christian McCaffrey. It would be asinine to watch McCaffrey play and call him a system running back. Just watch Aiyuk run routes here and tell me which ones are a product of the system: Aiyuk can win at all three levels of the defense. His twitch to shake defenders at the top of his routes is something you can’t teach. He can win with routes, contested catches, or with speed. Bottom line is he gets himself open.
Looking at his stats he has improved every year of his career. His usage the last two seasons shows me the coaching staff trusts him and that they were extremely happy with his development. Once again, he found a way to force touches in a loaded offense. I just saw a new metric that measures how many first downs a receiver gains per route run. Here is a breakdown of it followed by the top ten receivers in this metric from www.fantasypoints.com. “1D/RR is calculated by simply dividing a player’s total first downs by the total amount of routes they ran. First downs are a measure of a receiver’s ability to execute their route, earn a target, and convert it into a high-value reception that advances their team’s field position. Good receivers will do this more often, so when we divide by total routes to control for the volume of opportunities, we are left with an all-encompassing measure of WR skill and effectiveness.” Pretty impressive list of guys. I find it interesting that Aiyuk is the only 49er on this list. Both Dolphins receivers are on here and neither of them get the system wide receiver label. If there is a system receiver on this list it’s Nico Collins. He looked pretty average until C.J. Stroud and Bobby Slowik came to town. I say all of that without even mentioning that Brandon Aiyuk is second on this list! According to www.playerprofiler.com, Aiyuk has a 49.7% route win rate, 1.9% drop rate, and an average target separation of 1.78 yards. All three of those numbers are better than Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk posted in those stats last year. Aiyuk’s 57.3% route win rate in zone would pair so well with Christian Kirk’s 48.6% route win rate in man (7th in league). In my eyes, Aiyuk is a top receiver in this league. As far as the trade price itself? It’s right in line with the last five blockbuster wide receiver deals we’ve seen recently. They are: Hollywood Brown and BAL 2022 3rd (100) for ARI 2022 1st (23) A.J. Brown for PHI 2022 1st (18) & PHI 2022 3rd (101) Tyreek Hill for MIA 2022 1st (29), MIA 2022 2nd (50), MIA 2022 4th (121), MIA 2023 4th (122), & MIA 2023 6th (178) Davante Adams for LV 2022 1st (22) & LV 2022 2nd (53) Stefon Diggs & MIN 2020 7th (239) for BUF 2020 1st (22), BUF 2021 4th (134), BUF 2020 5th (155) & BUF 2020 6th (201) If you want a proven WR1 in this league you gotta pay and the 49ers asking price in this scenario is fine for a player as talented as Aiyuk. Especially considering the throw in is Zay Jones and not another pick. ARGUMENT 2 Trading for Brandon Aiyuk comes with signing him to a long term extension. This is a hold up for many fans and I understand. There is a lot of money tied up in the wide receiver room already and Aiyuk would command close to 25 million a year. I’m not going to speculate on what his contract terms would look like. That’s beyond me. Regardless, with Trevor Lawrence playing his last “cheap” year it’s time to strike and figure out the rest later.
This puzzle is going to look a lot more complicated after the Jaguars have to start paying Lawrence big-time money. Every good team in the league has to let good players walk away or trade them. It’s what happens when you accumulate a ton of talent and can’t afford it all. Yes, this deal would likely mean losing a player like Tyson Campbell, Walker Little, or Andre Cisco after next year. Maybe two of them but when was the last time “too much talent” was a problem around here? I have to give Trent Baalke credit in one department and that is the way he has worked his contract structures. He has done a really good job of managing individual cap hits without sacrificing the team. Baalke may not always have the right player signing the contract but he rarely leaves the team with their hands tied later. He has also done a good job restructuring players when needed. The Brandon Scherff restructure and Arik Armstead contracts are both great examples recently of Baalke being really smart when it comes to managing contracts. If I trust Baalke to do something well it’s to figure the cap out. Cam Robinson, Brandon Scherff, and Foye Oluokun are three contracts you can easily get out of after the season and they combine for 55 million dollars in cap hit this upcoming season in 2024. That’s enough cash dropping off the books along with another roughly ten percent salary cap increase next year to make me think paying Aiyuk and Lawrence can work. ARGUMENT 3 The draft is a gamble. Period. It is an objective fact that a handful of players taken in the first round of this year’s draft won’t have good NFL careers. I certainly love the idea of hitting a rookie wide receiver in the first and getting him cost-controlled for the next five seasons. In fact, that’s my preferred option!
Adonai Mitchell is a player who is gaining a lot of steam and looks like the late teens may be his draft spot. I love him as a player and when I watch him he reminds me of Ceedee Lamb. Could he be that good? Certainly, but unfortunately it’s just as likely he isn’t very good at all. That’s the nature of the business. There are so many reasons a player “busts” but many of those reasons have nothing to do with talent or even football itself. There is too much luck involved in the NFL draft to assume pick 17 will be the answer. In the 2020 draft, the Eagles were on the clock with the 21st pick. They needed a receiver. The top three on the board? Jalen Raegor, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk. They obviously picked Raegor leaving Jefferson on a silver platter for the Vikings at pick 22 right behind them. No one expected Jefferson to fall that far and the Vikings are forever grateful. Why did Jefferson drop? Concerns of him being a product of playing with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and the greatest college offense ever. They scouted the offense, not the player. Sound familiar? I’m looking to mitigate risk here. With where this team is currently a flopped first round pick, no matter the position, is going to hurt them in the long run more than paying Brandon Aiyuk.
The other thing to consider here is neither you, me or your favorite Twitter GM will be the one making the selection in April. With Baalke’s draft record, the proof is in the pudding. Where has he found his success? The trenches and defense mainly. Where has he whiffed the hardest? Wide receiver. A list of receivers Baalke has drafted: Ronald Johnson (2011 Rd 6) A.J. Jenkins (2012 Rd 1) Quentin Patton (2013 Rd 4) Bruce Ellington (2014 Rd 4) DeAndre Smelter (2015 Rd 4) Aaron Burbridge (2016 Rd 6) Jalen Camp (2021 Rd 6) Parker Washington (2023 Rd 6) Two conclusions to be made here. The first is Baalke doesn’t swing at receiver early. It’s not a part of his draft philosophy and that’s evident by taking a receiver before round four only one time in nine drafts as a General Manager. The second is, well, he just doesn’t have an eye for receiver scouting. Somehow it’s entirely possible that Parker Washington could havethe best career of receivers drafted by Baalke. Go get the sure thing in Brandon Aiyuk and use the rest of the draft to solidify the depth this team needs. For me, this trade would be a home run. The Jaguars would have a true outside receiver locked up long-term to pair with Trevor, it leans into Baalke’s strengths as a general manager, and mitigates another disaster that would only set this team back further. Would you make the trade?
