New year, same coach. What’s up?

Amid a somewhat muted set of exit interviews following the end of the regular season, Portland Trail Blazers General Manager Joe Cronin indicated to fans and media that the team intends to bring back Head Coach Chauncey Billups next year. The announcement came as a mild surprise, in part because of Billups’ 21-61 record this season (and cumulative 81-165 record with the Blazers), in part because he only has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract. Moving on from Billups has never been easier. The organization is electing to stay the course.

This has provoked a small firestorm in the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag. For example:

Dave,

Can you explain why we’re keeping Chauncey? It makes no sense to me. The team has been disappointing and I can’t see how he’s helping at all.

Bryson

And…

Dave,

More evidence that the Blazers are directionless. They’re refusing to make a coaching change when its clearly called for. Don’t even get me started on game plans or substitutions from Billups. It started out bad and got worse. How can they possible justify this?

Alex

And…

Dear Dave,

Worst. Coach. In the NBA. Is that some kind of badge of honor? What is the front office seeing that we’re not? Chauncey is way over his head. The sucking sound from Moda Center isn’t just the whirlpool of losses, it’s literal SUCKING, which is all this team and coaching staff is good at. Why don’t they fire him and get somebody who knows what they’re doing?

Jon D

That’s just a representative sample, relatively profanity-free. There’s more, much of it less printable.

I don’t know if I’m capable of justifying Billups’ tenure or the Blazers’ decision to retain him. That cumulative record speaks for itself. I can venture a few thoughts.

In Transition

The transition away from the Damian Lillard era plays a part. Billups’ big sin isn’t losing 61 games this season. Few coaches would have done better with this roster. Portland’s inability to win when Lillard was in the fold was a greater shortcoming. Billups was at the helm for the final two years of Lillard’s tenure.

On the surface not being able to win with a veteran roster, then not being able to win with a young roster, begs the question: what kind of roster can you win with? Billups still hasn’t answered that question. Beneath the surface, though, he’s been dealt poor hands and asked to shepherd a major shift in organizational direction. Those forces overwhelm critiques of his coaching style or decisions.

Unhealthy

Injuries have also played a major role. The Blazers lost Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, and Anfernee Simons for significant parts of the season. Those were their three linchpins. Scoot Henderson showed up unprepared for the NBA game. Shaedon Sharpe spent more time in street clothes than anyone. Those two were their young hopes. Whether Billups called for phasers or photon torpedoes, the ammo bin was empty. That’s not a coaching issue.

Stuck at the Bottom With You

With a lack of superstar punch in this year’s draft, Portland’s situation is not likely to get better next season. A more experienced coach would face the same challenges, likely with no more solutions than Billups has. Until the team is healthy, whole, and rebuilt, winning coaching can’t happen.

Cost vs. Reward

Technically we don’t know that Billups can’t coach. We only know he hasn’t been able to. That subtle distinction provides the crack through which the Blazers are squeaking this move.

The team owes Billups $2 million or so no matter what. They may be thinking that paying him to actually coach is better than paying him to sit at home while another coach loses just as many games next year. A couple million isn’t much in NBA terms, but it’s still money. Given their status over the cap and trying to dodge the luxury tax as an admittedly-horrible team, Portland may be in “not a dime more” territory.

Player Development

Moving toward the positive, Toumani Camara, Dalano Banton, and even Henderson showed signs of progress as the season unfolded. That speaks well of Coach Billups’ potential as a developmental guru. Given the state and age of the team, that may be one of the most important characteristics for Portland right now.

Billups’ players have also spoken well of him in general. He appears to be easy to get along with and has been willing to speak publicly on his team’s woes without falling apart. Those are basic coaching characteristics, but not everyone has them.

Conclusion

Cumulatively, these reasons amount to an anemic case for keeping Coach Billups. But the Blazers are in an anemic situation…and that’s being charitable. In the end, I assume they decided to focus on the positives while attributing the negatives to forces beyond a coach’s control. Either that or they weren’t willing to spend money to find out.

All season long, my argument has been that there’s no reason to keep Billups, but no compelling reason to fire him either. If you put my feet to the fire, I’d probably say that’s enough justification to merit a second year coaching, but not a fourth. But I don’t necessarily blame the Blazers—who know far more about the situation than I—for landing on the “no reason to fire him” part of the equation.

The fifth year of Billups’ contract—the season after next—is a team option. At that point the Blazers will owe him no more guaranteed money. They might also have a different outlook organizationally, having walked through a couple of drafts.

The Summer of 2025 now becomes the decision point. Until then, they’re holding course. So be it. Pragmatists can focus on more of the same-old, same-old. Optimists can point out that there’s nowhere to go but up. Conspiracy theorists can speculate the Blazers are aiming for Cooper Flagg. In the absence of data—and real success—one explanation is probably as good as another. All we know is that Billups will apparently be back and…there you go.