Mock draft: College position players dominate Top 10
Just a few years ago, the scouting industry and, as a result, those of us who cover the Draft, would just about be in “Go” mode. The recently completed conference tournaments used to be the last looks decision-makers would get at the college crop in a class. Perhaps area scouts would hit the Regionals, set to begin this weekend, but scouting directors and GMs wouldn’t get to those because the June Draft typically started right at the end of that first round of postseason play.
When the event was moved to July and the All-Star break, we all had to learn to shift our internal Draft clocks. Teams can, and will, scout Regionals, Super Regionals, even the College World Series, fairly heavily. Plus there’s the mid-June Draft Combine as well.
I bring all this up, more than six weeks before the Draft actually begins, to make it clear just how much longer we have to go here and how much still can change. Teams have yet to zero in on things like medical reports and signability, so this new mock still has a good amount of conjecture involved, albeit with a new Draft Top 200 list and an executive survey that do provide some insights.
The top 10 names still seem to be about the same, but as Jim Callis pointed out in his mid-May mock, it’s rare that the top 10 guys go in the top 10, even if that’s how I’ve drawn it up for this edition (with some changes in order from Jim’s). I’ll point out throughout the projection when there are names who seem to be creeping up the first round in conversations, though it’s still a bit early in my opinion to go into any real detail about permutations in each spot.
As always, there are some players I wanted to get into the first 30 picks, but couldn’t quite find a home. There is a lot of buzz for Illinois prep right-hander Ryan Sloan and Arkansas high school outfielder Slade Caldwell, with both being mentioned as high as the teens (especially Sloan). California high school righty Braylon Doughty’s name has come up a little bit, so keep an eye on that one, as the prep pitching set is always so difficult to place.
1. Guardians: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 1)
Bazzana, our new No. 1, and Charlie Condon continue to get the bulk of the buzz for the top spot, and both continue to put up video-game type numbers.
2. Reds: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 2)
In many ways, the Reds are in a good spot and can take whichever college bat the Guardians don’t take. In this case, it’s Condon.
3. Rockies: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (No. 5)
There’s been talk that at least one of the two top college arms would break into the top of the Draft ahead of a couple of the college bats we’ve had up here. Burns has been on fire of late, with 71 strikeouts over 33 innings in his last five starts.
4. A’s: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M (No. 8)
With plenty of college power still on the board, the A’s have some options and Montgomery, with his 26 homers and 1.193 OPS, is still very much in the mix.
5. White Sox: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (No. 3)
Yes, the chase rate concerns some, but the guy just doesn’t swing-and-miss, carrying a .415/.525/.844 line with 29 homers into Regional play.
6. Royals: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (No. 4)
He shook off a slow start and now has 22 homers and a 1.327 OPS for the year. Who wouldn’t want to see him in a lineup with Bobby Witt Jr.?
7. Cardinals: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (No. 6)
Smith, currently holding an NCAA Division I record 17.5 K/9 rate, is the other college arm who could break into the group of top 5 college bats, so it shouldn’t shock anyone if he goes earlier than this.
