Twins Could Be Prime Suitors as James Paxton Trade Rumors Swirl
Another starting pitcher has entered the trade market–this time, from a contender hoping to clear space for a big splash of their own and a pair of returning stars. James Paxton is available for any team that wants him. Does he fit what the Twins need for a stable rotation down the stretch?
The Los Angeles Dodgers made surprising news Monday afternoon, designating left-handed starter James Paxton for assignment following their move to activate Clayton Kershaw from the 60-day injured list. Paxton had just made the start for the Dodgers Sunday night against the Boston Red Sox. He threw five innings, and allowed three runs on four walks and four hits, including a homer, but he struck out seven batters on 95 pitches to keep the Dodgers in the game.
The Dodgers have been rumored by many national baseball writers to be in the market for additional starting pitching depth this trade deadline. While Paxton provides some depth, they’re going all-in on their confidence to land a more dependable arm than the 35-year-old Canadian has been for them this season, while creating space for both Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow in their rotation.
None of that is to say that Paxton has been terrible for the Dodgers all year. He’s made 18 starts, pitched a total of 89 ⅓ innings, posted a 4.43 ERA, and lowered his home run to fly ball ratio by nearly half from what it was in 2023, going from 17.8% to 9.5%. But the greatest weakness for Paxton this season has been his control. At the time of his DFA, he leads all National League starters with 48 walks.
A lot of the walks are coming off his four-seamer, which has lacked command in the strike zone this season. Per Baseball Savant, he’s only favored throwing it in the upper half of the strike zone, and it frequently lands either right in hitters’ wheelhouses or outside the zone. He’s struck out batters 30 times with the pitch, but it’s only coming with a 14.6% whiff rate.
Partially balancing out the poor location and diminished effectiveness of his fastball is his knuckle-curve, which he’s thrown the second-most this year. Opposing hitters only have a .205 batting average (17-for-83) and .251 wOBA in plate appearances that end on that curve, and have struck out 24 times on the pitch, thanks to a much more efficient 35.4% whiff rate.
Of his 18 starts this season, Paxton has only gone six or more innings six times and hasn’t thrown more than 97 pitches, which was in his first start of the season on Apr. 1. He’s still averaging 93.5 MPH on his fastball, though, which shows there’s middle- to back-of-the-rotation stuff left in him.
The case for Paxton as the best fit to buttress the Minnesota starting rotation before the trade deadline centers on what should be a low cost of acquisition, both financially and in terms of young talent. Paxton signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers this offseason, with $4 million on the base salary. However, it included a plethora of incentives: a $3 million signing bonus, a $2 million bonus for making the Opening Day roster (which he did), and various other bonuses ranging from $600,000 to $1 million, bringing the total amount he could earn to $13 million this year. After making his 18th start Sunday, he’s assured himself of all that money.
With the incentives and bonuses already paid out by the Dodgers, the Twins would only have to pay Paxton around $1.5 million for the remainder of the season. The cost is much cheaper compared to other rental starters the Twins could pursue–such as Yusei Kikuchi, who is earning $12 million this year but will be eligible for a qualifying offer this fall. It’s also cheaper than the contract of Nathan Eovaldi, who is earning $17 million this season and has a $20 million player option in his contract for 2025.
The Twins have been on a budget this entire season, following the fallout from their TV deal with Diamond Sports, Bally’s parent company. It’s safe to say a player such as Paxton would be on their radar if they can get him for that fourth starter depth.
It’s likely that many teams (such as the Blue Jays and Rangers) are asking about Luke Keaschall if the Twins are inquiring about hurlers like Kikuchi or Eovaldi. Jumping the waiver wire to trade for Paxton would mean giving up a prospect, but it would surely be one with a much less bright future than Keaschall’s.
Paxton may not be the ideal playoff dependable starter Twins fans are hoping the front office pursues this trade deadline, but he can provide stability in the rotation–more needed than ever, with Chris Paddack landing on the injured list again. His presence would also allow the team to be more cautious with minor-league arms such as David Festa, Louie Varland, and the recent Triple-A debutante, Zebby Matthews.
Simeon Woods Richardson, too, could benefit from Paxton’s addition. While he is the Twins’ leading Rookie of the Year candidate and has exceeded expectations, the front office may still lighten his workload down the stretch to ensure that their suddenly rising star isn’t blowing his arm out before they need it most. He may not be the man he used to be during his prime days in Seattle, but Paxton could patch the hole left by Paddack, give the organization the freedom to protect Woods Richardson, and slot in nicely for a potential playoff Game 4, behind Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober.
Things will move quickly over the next week, with many trades and transactions. But the Twins could get out in front of one of their greatest needs this trade deadline without having to burn their wallets or salt the fields of their farm, by adding Paxton into their fourth rotation spot.
