Why the Dodgers will lose the NLDS
Michael Elizondo made many accurate predictions this year. On the eve of the Playoffs, he has one thing left to say: Win or else.
All but one of them were met at least in spirit (I’m looking at you, Evan Phillips, looking at you):
I had the 2024 Dodgers finishing at 95-67. The Dodgers won 98 games, which was the best in baseball. I admittedly am both miffed and grateful that the year’s final series did not matter and that the Colorado Rockies are one of the clown shows of baseball.
Naturally, I love being right and I love being proven right.
However, now that October baseball is here, I must address the elephant in the room, especially since the NLDS is upon us and once again, the Dodgers have to face little brother, the San Diego Padres for the third time in five years.
Joy. After reviewing everything that has happened in the last month, I have sadly come to the following conclusion.
Maybe it’s just not the Dodgers’ year
During the last series of the year, the Dodgers locked up the No. 1 overall seed and home field throughout the playoffs.
I cannot and will not get excited over these developments because in the last two seasons, the Dodgers had a bye, the Dodgers had home-field advantage, and it did not matter within 48 hours of the team taking the field.
The Dodgers are currently nursing a six-game playoff losing streak.
The Dodgers’ streak is currently tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the fourth-longest active streak behind only the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays (7) and the active leader, the Baltimore Orioles (10).
The franchise record is only eight games from 1995 to 2004. It took Lima Time to break the streak. It was in a series in which the Dodgers lost the very next game.
Of course, the longest historical playoff losing streak infamously belongs to the Minnesota Twins, who suffered 18 consecutive defeats from 2004 to 2020.
It takes talent to win a championship, which is expressed through timely hitting, sturdy defense, and stalwart pitching. As the saying goes, you do not need to be the best team all year, just the best team in October.
Since the COVID title, the Dodgers have definitely not been the best team in October.
That said, the axiom misses something obvious: you need your best personnel available with available being the operative word.
And the Dodgers’ injured list has been vast and impressive this year. From Clayton Kershaw to Mookie Betts, it is shorter to list the Dodgers from the opening day roster that have not been on the list this year. For simplicity, I will include Shohei Ohtani even though he was “limited” to just hitting duties this year.
- Michael Grove
- Landon Knack
- J.P. Feyereisen (currently off the 40-man roster)
- Alex Vesia
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Gavin Lux
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman (currently nursing a sprained ankle)
- Shohei Ohtani
Woof.
Granted, the opening roster was kind of a hodgepodge with the Korea Series, but if you want to depress yourself, just look at where the roster was when the team went to South Korea to what the roster is now.
Most teams would have imploded with this much turnover. And yet the Dodgers persevered. It is worth noting that there is no calvary. The Dodgers are going to have to make do with who is currently here.
Clayton Kershaw pitched seven times this year with his best start being in St. Louis with me in the lawn chair.
Tyler Glasnow is done for the year as he has been shut down again due to ongoing elbow discomfort (and will hopefully dodge surgery).
Tony Gonsolin was not expected to return in 2024. There was discussion about an outside possibility he could return as a reliever this year. Historically, Gonsolin has been dreadful in the postseason (career ERA is 9.20 over 14⅔ IP in eight games).
There was discussion that Shohei Ohtani might see pitching action but this talk was quickly and wisely scuttled before the end of the regular season. Ohtani’s surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, gave an interview about the topic and said the following:
When your literal doctor publicly frowns on the idea of you doing your job, that situation is when you know to do something else.
Hope and prayer are not a strategy; they are a coping mechanism.
There is not that much of a functional difference between “Oh no, the Dodgers lost in four!” and “Ugh, the Dodgers got swept again!” — especially if these phrases are said as a result of the National League Division Series.
Is there enough pitching to make a deep run? Probably not.
