Grade the Trade: Yankees-Cubs blockbuster would pair Cody Bellinger and Juan Soto at expense of top NYY prospect

The New York Yankees offseason hinges on where Juan Soto decides to sign and for how much. Soto is priority 1-1,000 for Brian Cashman and Co., and they’re unlikely to make any significant moves until they know whether they’ll be able to slot the 26-year-old superstar into the middle of their lineup next season and for many more seasons to come.

But even if Soto does opt to return to the Bronx, that will be just the first (very big) step in a critical offseason. New York will still have several holes to fill, including a first baseman, another corner outfielder and a second baseman to replace the departing Anthony Rizzo, Alex Verdugo and Gleyzer Torres, respectively.

It just so happens that the Chicago Cubs might have a couple players available who fit just such a description. Recent reports suggest that the team was taken aback and a little put off by Cody Bellinger’s decision to opt in to his contract for the 2025 season, and could be looking to move off of the $27.5 million he’s owed this year in order to free up some payroll flexibility. Second baseman Nico Hoerner could also be on the trade block, as top infield prospect Matt Shaw is banging on the door to the Majors following a sensational cameo at Triple-A to end the year.

So you can understand how Emmanuel Barbari of SNY’s Baseball Night in New York came up with the following trade. What’s more confusing is exactly why he thought the Cubs would agree to it.

From the Yankees’ perspective, this one is pretty straight-forward. The team had some interest in Bellinger before he signed with the Cubs last offseason, and it’s easy to see why: Bellinger’s swing is seemingly tailor-made for the short porch at Yankee Stadium, and while he’s not the outfield defender he once was, he’s still more than capable of playing left field — and proved to be an excellent first baseman in Chicago after a knee injury forced him to the infield. The outfield market is awfully thin this winter, and acquiring Bellinger could hold more appeal than outbidding teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves for Teo scar Hernandez or Anthony Santander.

Hoerner, meanwhile, shouldn’t miss too much time next year as he recovers from offseason elbow surgery. He doesn’t offer much of any power at the plate, but the Yankees have plenty of that elsewhere. What Hoerner does bring is elite defense at second base and tremendous baserunning, two areas in which New York was sorely lacking in October (and really all year long). Hoerner is exactly the sort of smart, contact-oriented spark plug that would balance out this lineup and he has two more years remaining on a very team-friendly extension.

And what does Cashman have to give up to land two above-average big leaguers at positions of need? Two of his best prospects, but as we’re about to get into, that’s an awfully misleading characterization.

New York Yankees trade grade: A

Jones has been one of New York’s brightest prospects from the moment the team drafted him 25th overall back in 2022. A 6-foot-6, 235-pounder with light-tower power and the ability to man all three outfield spots, the Aaron Judge comparisons unsurprisingly came early and often. But it’s worth remembering that Judge represents the 99th-percentile outcome for his player type, the exception that proves the rule. And while Jones has shown real flashes in his pro career so far, he’s also shown a worrying penchant for swinging and missing, striking out a whopping 200 times at Double-A in 2024. The power is very real, but he’s going to have to make real strides in his command of the strike zone and pitch recognition to come anywhere close to Judge as a hitter in the Majors.

Warren, meanwhile, is coming off a season in which he put up a 5.91 ERA over 23 starts at Triple-A and an ugly 10.32 mark in a brief cameo in the Majors. Those numbers are a little bit misleading: Warren struck out 136 batters in 109.2 Minor League innings this season, with a wipeout sweeper and a sinker that eats up bats, and there’s a reason why he’s been considered among the Yankees’ best pitching prospects for the last couple of years. Still, he doesn’t have nearly the command he needs to make his arsenal play up, and at this point it seems like his ceiling is a solid No. 3 or 4 starters.

So that’s a boom-or-bust outfielder, an OK pitching prospect and … rotation depth in Stroman that the Cubs are all-too-familiar with and could probably find for cheaper on the open market. It’s hard to see why that would move the needle for Jed Hoyer, especially considering the young outfield depth Chicago already has in Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara.

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